World primary energy demand expands by 45% by now and 2030 in the reference scenario.
All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest.
Most of the incremental oil & gas comes from national companies in non-OECD countries, resulting in major structural changes in the energy industry and increased imports in the OECD.
The production-weighted average decline rate by year of first production is projected to rise from 6,7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as production shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline quicker.
Production reaches 104 mb/d in 2030, requiring 64 mb/d of gross capacity additions – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth and counter decline.
Close to 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from national companies - on the assumption that investment is forthcoming.
Relaterat: IEA orginalbilder, pressrelease och executive summary
